Youth Turnout in 2014 Preliminarily at 21.3%, Comparable to Recent Midterm Elections

Youth Turnout in 2014 Preliminarily at 21.3%, Comparable to Recent Midterm Elections

Exclusive CIRCLE Analysis Shows that At Lease 9.9 Million Young Americans, 18-29, Voted in Tuesday’s Election

Medford/Somerville, MA – Youth vote experts from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) – the preeminent, non-partisan research center on youth engagement based at Tufts University’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service – today released an exclusive, preliminary youth turnout estimate showing that at least 9.9 million young Americans (or 21.3%), voters ages 18-29, cast a ballot in Tuesday’selections across the country.   

The number of young voters in Tuesday’s election is quite comparable to the turnout seen in other, recent midterm elections.  The estimate during this same time for youth turnout during the 2010 midterm election was at 20.4% of young voters (or around 9 million young people, ages 18-29).

“In terms of both youth turnout and vote choice, 2014 looks like a typical midterm election year as far as youth are concerned. Young people made up a similar proportion of voters in 2010,” said Peter Levine, Associate Dean of the Tisch College.  “Although this was a wave election for the GOP, youth still tended to vote Democratic. In the national exit poll data on House races, 18-29 year-olds preferred Democratic candidates by 54% to 43%. In many close Senatorial and gubernatorial races, youth preferred the Democratic candidate, and in some states, like Florida, they were the only group that did.”

The day-after youth turnout estimate compiled by CIRCLE’s team of youth voting experts is based on exit polls, the number of ballots counted, and demographic data from the US Census and is subject to change. In past years the National Exit Polls (NEP), conducted by Edison Research, have been adjusted after an election; for example, the estimate of the proportion of youth in the 2010 electorate was adjusted twice after the election. Additionally, in three states, less than 95% of precincts have reported. As the number of ballots counted increases, so will youth turnout, unless the share is adjusted downward.

Levine continued, “The fact is that 2008 was an exceptionally strong year for Democrats, when youth support for Barack Obama set the all-time record in presidential elections. The change from an extraordinary presidential year to a rather typical midterm year hurt the Democratic Senate incumbents from the class of 2008.”

For a full breakdown of the youth vote turnout, as well as historical data comparisons and further sourcing information for the data, please visit here.  Further information on the youth share of the electorate can be found, here. CIRCLE will released additional analysis of the youth vote over the next week.

 “For Republicans, the lesson is they can be competitive among younger voters, although nationally, they still lag behind with that group, and in some states, the Democratic tilt of young voters may pose a problem in years to come.  For Democrats, the message must be to re-engage with young people, who had provided more support in 2008 Senate contests,” Levine concluded.

Important narratives to consider regarding young voters include:

· Young Voters aren’t a Monolithic Group: Diversity in Race, Gender, Socio-economics and Educational backgrounds.  In recent years, youth political support has differed by race, ethnicity and gender.

· What happened in youth-heavy districts and states? Did campaigns adequately perform the outreach necessary to reach young voters?

· Youth show less interest in being affiliated with a particular political party.  Although they have a tendency to be liberal on social issues, a range of candidates in all parties could vie for their votes.  How did these tendencies play out among campaigns in 2014?

· Do controversial ballot measures like marijuana legalization or same-sex marriage boost youth voter turnout? New analysis shows that ballot measures alone do little to impact turnout numbers amongst youth in those states. 

** To speak to CIRCLE’s youth vote experts for interviews and/or analysis throughout the week, please contact:  Kristofer Eisenla at kristofer@lunaeisenlamedia.com or 202-670-5747**

Throughout this election season, CIRCLE’s 2014 Election Center has offered a myriad of new products providing comprehensive analysis of young voters, both nationally and in targeted states and congressional districts across the country.  Some of these products include:  an Interactive Congressional District Map and Interactive State-by-State Voting Map; as well as The Youth Vote in 2014:  Congressional House Races to Watch and 2014 Midterms:  Young Voters in Competitive Senate Races.